ABSTRACT

In this talk we will start by presenting parts of an earthquake catalog over the time span 1932-1999 compiled by the Southern California Earthquake Center limited to the region 31 - 36 N, 115 - 120 W. Then a preliminary hierarchical Bayesian space-model in the spirit of Wikle, Berliner and Cressie (1998, Environmental and Ecological Statistics) will be presented. In the model earthquakes are represented by potentials on a grid. The potential at each time and space point is decomposed into a time independent term, a short time term, a long time term and a strain term. Finally, we will give some thoughts on the implementation of the model.