This page contains preprints written by Richard L. Smith.
The papers here were supported by one or more of the following grants. From NSF: DMS-9115750, DMS-9205112, DMS-9705166, DMS-9971980, DMS-0084375, DMS-0635449 (the SAMSI grant). From EPA: Cooperative Agreement CR-827737-01-0, Contract OD-5210-NAEX. From NOAA: "Statistical Assessment of Uncertainty in Present and Future North American Climate Extremes" (joint with Dr. Gabi Hegerl). From NIH/NIEHS: The environmental epidemiology of arrythomogenesis in WHI (PI: Dr. Eric Whitsel, Department of Epidemiology, UNC). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of any of the above funding agencies.
Please email email@example.com if you have difficulties accessing any of these preprints.
Understanding Semsitivites in Paleoclimatic Reocnstructions. Submitted to Annals of Applied Statistics, under review. pdf file
Elementary Reconstruction of the Hockey Stick Curve: Discussion of paper by Li, Nychka and Ammann. To appear in JASA. . free download
Characterizing the uncertainty of climate change projections using hierarchical models, by Claudia Tebaldi and Richard Smith. To appear, Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis , edited by Tony O'Hagan and Mike West, Oxford University Press. pdf file
Hierarchical Models for the Effect of Spatial Interpolation Error on the Inferred Relationship between Ambient Particulate Matter Exposure and Cardiovascular Health, by J.L. Crooks, E.A. Whitsel, D.J. Catellier, D. Liao, P.M. Quibrera and R.L. Smith. Submitted for publication. pdf file
On the estimation and application of max-stable processes, by Zhengjun Zhang and Richard L. Smith. Resubmitted, August 2008. pdf file
Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models, by R.L. Smith, C. Tebaldi, D. Nychka and L.O. Mearns. Accepted for publication, Journal of the American Statistical Association. pdf file
R.L. Smith (2007), Air Pollution Risk. To appear in the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Assessment, edited by Brian Everitt and Ed. Melnick, to be published by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd. pdf file
Claudia Tebaldi, Michael D. Mastrandrea and Richard L. Smith (2007), Global Warming. To appear in the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Assessment, edited by Brian Everitt and Ed. Melnick, to be published by John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.
D. Liao, D.J. Peuquet, Y. Duan, E.A. Whitsel, J. Dou, R.L. Smith, H.-M. Lin, J.-C. Chen and G. Heiss (2006), GIS approaches for the estimation of residential-level ambient PM concentrations. Environmental Health Perepctives,114, Nr. 9, 1374-1380. pdf file
E.A. Whitsel, P.M. Quibrera, R.L. Smith, D.J. Catellier, D. Liao, A.C. Henley and G. Heiss (2006), Accuracy of commercial geocoding: assessment and implications. Epidemiologic Perspectives & Innovations 2006, 3:8, doi:10.1186/1742-5573-3-8. pdf file
P. Caragea and R.L. Smith (2006), Approximate Likelihood for Spatial Processes. Submitted for publication. pdf file
P. Caragea and R.L. Smith (2006), Asymptotic properties of computationally efficient alternative estimators for a class of multivariate normal models. Journal of Multivariate Analysis , In Press. pdf file
Bayesian Modeling of Uncertainty in Ensembles of Climate Models. Richard L. Smith, Claudia Tebaldi, Doug Nychka and Linda Mearns. pdf file
Discussion of the paper "Deriving Bayesian and frequentist estimators from time-invariant estimating equations: a unifying approach" by Antonietta Mira and Adrian Baddeley. Eighth Valencia Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, Alicante, Spain, June 2 2006. pdf file
Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations, by C. Tebaldi, L.O. Mearns, D. Nychka and R.L. Smith. Geophysical Research Letters 31 L24213, doi:10.1029/2004GL021276, 2004. pdf file
Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: A
Bayesian approach to the analysis of multi-model ensembles, by Claudia
Tebaldi, Richard L. Smith, Doug Nychka and Linda O. Mearns.
Journal of Climate 18 1524-1540 (2005).
Corrigendum (to be published, August 14 2005)
Asymptotic theory for kriging with estimated parameters and its application to network design, by Richard L. Smith and Zhengyuan Zhu. Preliminary version, updated November 2004. pdf file
Long range dependence analysis of internet traffic, by C. Park, F. Hernandez-Campos, L. Le, J.S. Marron, J. Park, V. Pipiras, F.D. Smith, R.L. Smith, M. Trovero and Z. Zhu. Submitted for publication, September 2004. pdf file
The behavior of multivariate maxima of moving maxima processes, by Zhengjun Zhang and Richard L. Smith. Final version published in Journal of Applied Probability 41 1113-1123. pdf file
Environmental Statistics course notes. Presented as a CBMS lecture series at the University of Washington, June 2001. Under revision for book publication. pdf file
The role of statistics in assessing the public health threat of air pollution. Invited talk at 54rd Session of International Statistical Institute, Berlin, August 20 2003. pdf file
Spatio-temporal modeling of PM2.5 data with missing values, by R.L. Smith, S. Kolenikov and L.H. Cox. Final version, May 2003, accepted for Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres. pdf file
A higher order expansion for the joint density of the sum and the maximum under the Gumbel domain of attraction, by Amy Grady and Richard L. Smith. April 2003. pdf file
Statistics of extremes, with applications in environment, insurance and finance. Chapter 1 of Extreme Values in Finance, Telecommunications and the Environment, edited by B. Finkenstadt and H. Rootzen, Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, London, pp. 1--78 (in press, publication date August 2003). pdf file
Invited commentary: Timescale-dependent Mortality Effects of Air Pollution.
American Journal of Epidemiology 157, 1066-1070.
(For the article being discussed, and the authors' rejoinder, please see Francesca Dominici's home page.)
Data analytic approaches for modeling specific pollutants in epidemiological
In Improving Estimates of Diesel and Other Emissions for
eds. M.G. Costantini, D.A. Kaden, A.G. Russell, J.M. Samet and J. Warren.
HEI Communication 10, Health Effects Institute,
Cambridge, MA, pp. 153--160.
(For the full report, please go to the Health Effects Institute's web site, follow "Publications", and look for Communication 10.)
Trends in rural sulfur concentrations, by David M. Holland, Petrutza Caragea and Richard L. Smith. Revised July 2003. Tentatively accepted for Atmospheric Environment. The paper is not currently available online but for an abbrviated version click here.
A bivariate time series approach to anthropogenic trend detection in hemispheric time series, by R.L. Smith, T.M.L. Wigley and B.D. Santer. Journal of Climate 16, 1228-1240 (2003). pdf file of preprint, July 2002.
A statistical assessment of Buchanan's vote in Palm Beach county. Statistical Science 17, 441-457 (2002). pdf file of preprint.
A new class of nonstationary spatial models, by Montserrat Fuentes and Richard L. Smith. September 2001 (currently under revision). pdf file
Modeling financial time series data as moving maxima processes, by Zhengjun Zhang and Richard L. Smith. September 2001. pdf file
Commentary on EPA Particulate Matter Criteria Document, by P. Guttorp, L. Sheppard and R.L. Smith. July 2001. pdf file
Models and Computations for Nonstationary Spatial Processes, by M. Fuentes, R. Smith and S. Kolenikov. Invited talk at 53rd Session of International Statistical Institute, Seoul, Korea, August 22-29 2001. pdf file
Spatial Trends and Spatial Extremes in South Korean Ozone, by Seokhoon Yun and Richard L. Smith. Invited talk at 53rd Session of International Statistical Institute, Seoul, Korea, August 22-29 2001. pdf file
Measuring risk with extreme value theory, by R.L. Smith. Revised July 2000. In Risk Management: Theory and Practice, edited by M. Dempster and H.K. Moffatt, Cambridge University Press. Also published as chapter 2 of Extremes and Integrated Risk Management, edited by P. Embrechts. Risk Books, London, 19-35. pdf file
Bayesian risk analysis, by Richard L. Smith and Dougal J. Goodman. Chapter 17 of Extremes and Integrated Risk Management, edited by P. Embrechts. Risk Books, London, 235-251. pdf file
Regression models for air pollution and daily mortality: Analysis of data from Birmingham, Alabama, by R.L. Smith, J.M. Davis, J. Sacks, P. Speckman and P. Styer. Environmetrics 11, 719-743 (2000). pdf file
Threshold dependence of mortality effects for fine and coarse particles in Phoenix, Arizona, by R.L. Smith, Y. Kim, M. Fuentes and D. Spitzner. Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association 50, 1367-1379 (2000). pdf file
Spatial statistics in environmental science. In Nonlinear and Nonstationary Signal Processing, edited by W.J. Fitzgerald, R.L. Smith, A.T. Walden and P.C. Young, Cambridge University Press, pp 152-183 (2000). pdf file
Estimation of regional trends in sulfur dioxide over the eastern United States, by D.M. Holland, V. De Oliveira, L.H. Cox and R.L. Smith. Environmetrics 11, 373-393 (2000). pdf file
Reader Reaction: On a Likelihood-Based Goodness-of-Fit Test of the Beta-Binomial Model, by S. T. Garren, R. L. Smith and W. W. Piegorsch. Biometrics 56, 947-949 (2000), pdf file
Bootstrap goodness-of-fit test for the beta-binomial model, by S. T. Garren, R. L. Smith and W. W. Piegorsch. Journal of Applied Statistics 28, 561-571 (2001). pdf file
Trends in Rainfall Extremes by R.L. Smith. First version, May 1999. pdf file
Accounting for multiple pollutants in pollution-mortality studies, by Yuntae Kim, Dan Spitzner, Zhengjun Zhang, Richard L. Smith and Montserrat Fuentes. Presented at Baltimore JSM, August 1999. Published in 1999 ASA Proceedings (Biometrics Section). pdf file
Human health effects of environmental pollution in the atmosphere, by Richard L. Smith, Jerry M. Davis and Paul Speckman. Draft paper, subsequently published as Chapter 6 of Statistics in the Environment 4: Statistical Aspects of Health and the Environment, edited by V. Barnett, A. Stein and F. Turkman. John Wiley, Chichester, 91-115.
transition probabilities for the independence Metropolis sampler,
by Richard L. Smith and Luke Tierney
Estimating nonstationary spatial correlations , by Richard L. Smith.
and estimation of the multivariate extremal
index by R.L. Smith and I. Weissman. December 1996.
Inference, Rare Events and Hierarchical Models,
by Richard L. Smith.
Bayesian and frequentist approaches to parametric predictive inference.
A Bayesian approach to modelling spatial-temporal precipitation data by R.L. Smith and P.J. Robinson (1995), Proceedings of the Sixth International Meeting on Statistical Climatology, Galway, Ireland.
Joint versus Marginal Estimation for Bivariate Extremes by D. Shi, R.L. Smith and S. Coles (1992). Unpublished.
Max-Stable Processes and Spatial Extremes by R.L. Smith (1990). Unpublished.
Regional Estimation from Spatially Dependent Data by R.L. Smith (1990). Unpublished.
A Survey of Nonregular Problems by R.L. Smith (1989). Proceedings of the 47th Session of the International Statistical Institute.
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